SouthernWorldwide.com – President Donald Trump continues to express optimism that a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran is within reach, despite months of protracted diplomacy, persistent disagreements over uranium enrichment, and a ceasefire that recently appeared to be on the verge of collapse.
Trump stated to reporters, “We’re in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal,” indicating that an agreement could be finalized within “two or three days.” This assertion was made after he attended the third game of the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden.
Over the past two months, Trump has repeatedly suggested that a deal is imminent. However, there has been little public indication that the core issues complicating negotiations have been resolved. A count by CNN revealed that the President has stated a deal was close at least 38 times since the commencement of Operation Epic Fury.
Despite repeated predictions of an impending agreement, negotiations remain publicly stalled on key issues such as uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and Iran’s increasing stockpile of enriched uranium. Nevertheless, administration officials and external analysts suggest that a combination of economic pressure on Iran, a fragile yet holding ceasefire, and the significant costs associated with renewed conflict may explain Trump’s continued belief in the achievability of an agreement.
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In May alone, Trump described the deal as “largely negotiated,” later suggesting he was making a “final determination,” and has now indicated an agreement could be reached within days.
Michael Singh, a former National Security Council official, posited that Trump’s confidence likely stems from both the President’s distinctive negotiating approach and the current reality where neither Washington nor Iran appears inclined to abandon diplomatic efforts, despite recent military engagements.
When announcing the ceasefire on April 7, Trump commented that talks were “very far along” and that it would take approximately two weeks for “the Agreement to be finalized and consummated.”
“Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on ‘Peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a ‘Final Deal’ is reached. Things should move quickly,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday.
This optimistic outlook emerges as negotiators continue to be divided on fundamental aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, and shortly after recent military exchanges briefly jeopardized the delicate truce between Israel and Iran.
“As the President stated, he will only make a good deal for the American people. He is not going to be rushed into making a bad deal. Due to the successes of Operation Epic Fury, Economic Fury, and the blockade, President Trump holds the cards and has all the time he needs to make the best deal for the United States and the world.”
Trump’s confidence comes amidst a backdrop of escalating tensions, including the first direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran since the ceasefire took effect. Previously, the President had informed the Financial Times that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would have “no choice” but to accept a U.S.-brokered agreement with Iran.
The ceasefire itself appeared precarious over the weekend due to renewed exchanges between Israel and Iran, prompting Trump to publicly urge both parties to de-escalate and warning that further escalation could imperil the ongoing negotiations.
However, by Monday, both sides had indicated a desire to avert a wider confrontation. Netanyahu stated that Israel would “hold fire” following discussions with Trump, while Iran signaled that its recent military actions had concluded, provided there were no further provocations.
Singh suggested that both parties seem to be employing pressure tactics to encourage an agreement rather than preparing for a breakdown in talks.
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“It really does seem as though it’s sort of down to the details,” Singh remarked. “But, of course, the details can be quite hard.”
Negotiators continue to grapple with fundamental divergences regarding Iran’s nuclear program, notwithstanding months of discussions. However, analysts who foresee a potential pathway to a deal often highlight the increasing pressures confronting Iran.
Miad Maleki, a former sanctions official at the Treasury Department and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argued that Iran is experiencing escalating economic and diplomatic pressure that could ultimately compel the regime to reassess its current stances, which it has so far refused to abandon.
Maleki contended that Iran’s position has weakened during the ceasefire, citing ongoing economic pressure, additional sanctions, and the loss of key regime figures during the conflict.
“The regime is under severe pressure economically and diplomatically,” he stated.
This pressure might shed light on why administration officials continue to view diplomacy as a viable course of action, despite the slow pace of progress.
The Trump administration has consistently maintained that Iran must not be allowed to continue enriching uranium, asserting that even civilian enrichment capabilities could provide Iran with a route to developing nuclear weapons. Iranian officials, conversely, insist on their right to enrich uranium for peaceful energy purposes and have resisted proposals that would mandate a permanent cessation of enrichment activities within Iran.
Negotiators have also engaged in disputes over the disposition of Iran’s uranium stockpile.
Prior to inspectors losing visibility into key facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency estimated that Iran possessed approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity. This level is just below weapons-grade and, if further enriched, would be sufficient for multiple nuclear weapons.
These unresolved disagreements have fostered skepticism regarding the true imminence of a breakthrough. However, Iran is not the sole party facing pressure to avoid a resurgence of conflict.
The conflict has already contributed to higher energy prices and disrupted global shipping routes. Analysts have warned that the economic repercussions could persist for months, even if maritime traffic were to resume immediately.
Moody’s Analytics has estimated that the conflict has cost American households approximately $100 billion over the past three months due to increased costs for fuel, transportation, and related expenses.
Trump’s confidence has also coincided with increasingly public divergences with Netanyahu concerning the strategy for addressing Iran.
The President recently remarked that Netanyahu would have “no choice” but to accept a deal with Tehran, comments that fueled speculation about growing disagreements between Washington and Jerusalem.
Ehud Eilam, a former researcher for Israel’s Ministry of Defense, observed that Israel and the United States share the objective of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons but often approach this challenge from differing strategic standpoints.
Eilam further argued that Washington possesses considerable influence over Israeli decision-making through its provision of military aid and weapons transfers.
“The delivery of U.S. weapons and ammunition to Israel, now and later, gives the Trump administration major leverage to convince Israel to accept a deal with Iran,” he concluded.
