SouthernWorldwide.com – President Donald Trump’s assertion of holding all the cards in the Iran conflict appears to be challenged, with Iran possessing a crucial element that has stalled negotiations.
The Iranian leadership seems in no hurry to reach an agreement, and may not even desire one. Trump himself dismissed Iran’s latest counter-proposal as “garbage” and famously stated that a ceasefire was on “life support.”
As the conflict enters its third month, Trump’s optimistic pronouncements have not been echoed by Iran or its parliament speaker, Mohammad Ghalibaf. Despite a struggling economy, Iran’s stance is that as long as they retain control of their enriched uranium, some of which is stored underground, they will remain in a stable position.
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Trump has repeatedly declared victory. However, given that the primary justification for the invasion was to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, any outcome short of that will likely be perceived as a significant failure.
This situation might be interpreted as part of the president’s negotiation strategy, pushing matters to the very last moment. The current state of affairs involves reciprocal blockades: Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blocking Iranian ports, prompting further dire threats from Trump.
What particularly irritates Trump is Iran’s decision to charge “friendly” ships—those not involved in the conflict—a 100 percent transit fee through a waterway crucial for one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Other vessels are being prevented from entering the strait, where Iran has deployed explosive mines.
TRUMP PUSHES SHAKY DEAL WITH IRAN AS HORMUZ IS SHUT AGAIN, BUT OPPONENTS GIVE HIM NO CREDIT FOR PROGRESS
The two nations are now in a tense standoff, with neither side showing signs of backing down.
The Wall Street Journal described the situation as follows:
“The U.S. and Iran are locked in a diplomatic stalemate over issues that have bedeviled the two sides for years, as the conflict settles into a gray zone that is neither war nor peace.
“The ceasefire is entering its second month and, despite sporadic violence, has now lasted almost as long as the fighting which preceded it. There is little to indicate that either the U.S. or Iran is ready to compromise, but neither wants to start fighting again.”
Trump informed White House reporters that Iran apparently believes he will either grow tired of the conflict, become bored, or feel pressured to end it due to rising energy prices.
“But there’s no pressure,” Trump stated. “We’re going to have a complete victory.”
Meanwhile, Iran continues to present itself as the victor, with its regime intact and its missile and nuclear programs still posing a threat. Ghalibaf issued a warning to the Americans on Monday, stating: “Our armed forces are ready to deliver a well-deserved response to any aggression.”
Instead of engaging in direct combat, both sides have intensified their reciprocal blockades, which are difficult to dismantle without one party yielding. The Trump administration has strengthened the U.S. embargo on Iranian ports and vessels, while Iran maintains its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The New York Times reported that U.S. intelligence officials, contrary to the administration’s public statements, privately believe that Iran has re-established operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, “which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway.”
TRUMP’S LAST-MINUTE DELAY: WHY HE WAS NEVER GOING TO OBLITERATE IRAN IN THE FIRST PLACE
Trump did, however, facilitate a three-day ceasefire and prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine. This initiative was largely seen as an effort to prevent Vladimir Putin from facing embarrassment during a scaled-down parade commemorating the Soviet victory over Nazism.
Regarding Trump’s upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping, which was previously postponed due to the Iran conflict, the atmosphere has noticeably cooled.
Following several trade disputes, “China increasingly casts itself not as a fading civilization trying to catch up to the West but as a superpower poised to surpass it.”
A report from a Beijing-based think tank suggests that the U.S. is “sliding toward polarization, institutional dysfunction and even ‘Latin American-style instability.’” Such views are now being voiced more openly rather than being kept private.
China’s propaganda apparatus, which highlights incidents like the Minnesota shootings, is keenly aware that the unpopularity of the Iran war is negatively impacting Trump’s approval ratings as the midterm elections approach.
This is one reason why Xi is expected to pressure his counterpart regarding arms sales to Taiwan.
Furthermore, China is developing a new AI model that, despite its current reliance on chips from the American company NVIDIA, demonstrates Xi’s determination to forge its own technological path.
When asked yesterday if China, which opposes the Iran war, could leverage its influence, Trump responded, “no, I don’t think we need any help with Iran.”
Meanwhile, a senior Pentagon official testified yesterday that the cost of the Iran war has risen to approximately $29 billion, a detail that Pete Hegseth declined to elaborate on.
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Trump prefers not to use the term “war,” but this figure suggests a conflict far more substantial than a mere incursion. The lack of clarity surrounding the situation extends even to the federal budget.
