SouthernWorldwide.com – The 158th Belmont Stakes is set to captivate racing enthusiasts at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, June 6, with post time scheduled for 7:04 p.m. ET. This iconic race, usually held at Belmont Park, is temporarily relocating due to ongoing renovations, promising a memorable weekend for all involved.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica, a seasoned expert, is sharing his “Bear Bets,” which are actual wagers he’s placing on the event. For those looking to wager on the race, Fallica’s insights and betting card are detailed below, offering a comprehensive guide to navigating the day’s big race.
1. Vitruvian Man: +3000 (Bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer Doug O’Neill’s Vitruvian Man is the longest shot on the board, and for good reason. The horse struggled against So Happy and Potente in the Santa Anita Derby and is not expected to perform well in this race. While the connections may enjoy the experience, a win is highly improbable.
2. Powershift: +1200 (Bet $10 to win $130 total)
Trained by Todd Pletcher with jockey Luis Saez, Powershift showed promise in its debut, finishing a strong second. However, its subsequent performance in the Tampa Bay Derby was a predictable regression. A convincing maiden win has led to its entry here. While not a contender for the win, Powershift is expected to influence the race’s pace, likely dueling for the lead with Growth Equity. This early speed could benefit Mike Repole’s other entrant, Renegade. Powershift is anticipated to fade after the initial stages of the race.
3. Chief Wallabee: +300 (Bet $10 to win $40 total)
Bill Mott’s Chief Wallabee, with Junior Alvarado in the saddle, was considered a top contender for the Derby. However, a difficult trip in the Derby, even with blinkers, resulted in a fourth-place finish. This horse is still seen as having significant potential for the latter half of the year, but needs to prove it can win. Chief Wallabee finished behind Constitution in both Florida starts and behind Renegade in the Derby, despite a favorable post position. Alvarado might aim for a closer position if the pace is slow. With a smaller field, a cleaner trip is expected, but concerns remain about potential minor setbacks affecting the outcome. This race will be crucial in defining Chief Wallabee’s current ability and future prospects.
4. Renegade: +200 (Bet $10 to win $30 total)
Todd Pletcher trains Renegade, with Irad Ortiz Jr. as the jockey. Renegade had a strong showing in the Derby, narrowly losing to Golden Tempo. Ortiz Jr. expertly navigated a challenging trip from the rail, positioning the horse for a potential win amidst a pace collapse. Renegade is the rightful favorite, but the potentially slower fractions could be a factor. However, Renegade has demonstrated a quicker turn of foot than Golden Tempo in previous races like the Arkansas Derby and Remsen, suggesting it might be capable of winning without a fast pace. Both trainer and jockey have a history of success in this race. The path of running in the Derby, skipping the Preakness, and returning for the Belmont is a proven strategy. While not a guaranteed winner, Renegade is strongly favored to finish in the exacta, making it a key component in many betting strategies.
5. Ottinho: +2000 (Bet $10 to win $210 total)
Chad Brown’s Ottinho, with Dylan Davis as jockey, finished second to Further Ado in the Blue Grass Stakes. The horse has not shown form competitive enough for a win in this race. While Brown acknowledges the need for a significant improvement, Ottinho might be capable of grinding out a third or fourth-place finish, which would still be a respectable outcome, though unlikely.
6. Growth Equity: +1200 (Bet $10 to win $130 total)
Another Todd Pletcher trainee, Growth Equity, with Manny Franco riding, has shown consistent improvement in its figures. However, it is considered a notch below horses like Renegade, Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, and Commandment in terms of class. Its decisive win over Talk to Me Jimmy in the Peter Pan Stakes might not translate to contention here. Growth Equity is likely to serve as a pace setter, pushing Powershift and ensuring that Emerging Market doesn’t get caught in a fast pace, as it did in the Derby. While not expected to win, Growth Equity will play a significant role in shaping the race’s dynamics.
7. Commandment: +600 (Bet $10 to win $70 total)
Brad Cox’s Commandment, with John Velazquez aboard, had an unfavorable trip in the Derby, facing interference at the start and racing wide. Despite this, there’s a lingering negative perception of its chances. The horse has had four different jockeys in as many races. Questions remain about whether its earlier wins in Florida (Mucho Macho Man, Fountain of Youth, Florida Derby) took too much out of it, and if its late-running style will be effective given the race’s flow. Its two graded-stakes wins were by very narrow margins. A bet on Commandment at its current price offers significant value for those who believe in its potential, especially after a streak of five wins leading up to the Derby.
8. Emerging Market: +600 (Bet $10 to win $70 total)
Chad Brown’s Emerging Market, with Flavien Prat as jockey, is generating considerable interest. Fallica previously believed either Emerging Market or Chief Wallabee would win the Belmont. After their respective performances in the Derby and skipping the Preakness, this belief is reinforced. While Emerging Market’s Derby performance was below expectations, it was hampered by a fast pace, being stuck inside, and losing a shoe. A much-improved trip is anticipated here, with odds likely to remain close to its morning line. A Belmont win for Saratoga native Chad Brown in the race’s final edition at the Spa would be fitting. Emerging Market is considered a strong contender, running just off the pace.
9. Golden Tempo: +450 (Bet $10 to win $55 total)
Cherie DeVaux’s Golden Tempo, with Jose Ortiz as jockey, presents a compelling narrative, with DeVaux aiming to become the second female trainer in four years to win the Belmont Stakes after winning the Derby. The horse has shown steady figure improvement in all five starts. However, its performance is still heavily influenced by the pace. Golden Tempo benefited from fast fractions in the Derby, alongside Ocelli and Renegade, securing a top-three finish in the trifecta. A similar pace setup is unlikely on Saturday. While it’s expected to run its race, a win might be out of reach. It’s recommended to use this horse for underneath positions in betting.
Suggested Ways To Bet The Belmont
To align with individual budgets, suggested betting strategies are provided:
$10 Exacta Key Box 8/4-3 ($40)
$5 Exacta Key Box 8/7-9 ($20)
$10 Win-Place 8 ($10)
$2 Trifecta 8/3-4/2-3-4-7-9 ($16)
$2 Trifecta 3-4/8/2-3-4-7-9 ($16)
$1 Trifecta 8/2-3-4-7-9/3-4 ($8)
Historical Notes
A victory by a horse other than Golden Tempo would mark 23 different winners in the last 24 Triple Crown races, with Sovereignty being the only repeat winner in this span (2019-present).
Favorites have won only one of the last 11 Triple Crown races (Journalism in the 2025 Preakness). Seven of these races were won by the fourth betting choice or longer.
If Golden Tempo fails to finish in the money, it would be the first time since 2010 that the favorite has finished out of the money in all three Triple Crown races. In 2010, Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky finished sixth, Preakness favorite Super Saver eighth, and Belmont favorite Ice Box ninth. The 2026 Derby favorite, Further Ado, finished 11th, and Preakness favorite Taj Mahal finished 10th. Exaggerator was the last Belmont favorite to finish out of the money, placing 11th in 2016.
Four of the last six Belmont Stakes runners-up were trained by Todd Pletcher: Mainframe (2024), Forte (2023), Nest (2022), and Dr. Post (2020). Pletcher also won the 2022 Belmont with Mo Donegal.
Renegade and Powershift continue a pattern of Todd Pletcher’s Belmont Stakes entrants having single-word names. His last eight Belmont runners have shared this characteristic: Renegade (2026), Powershift (2026), Uncaged (2025), Crudo (2025), Mindframe (2024), Antiquarian (2024), Protective (2024), and Forte (2023).
None of Brad Cox’s last 16 Triple Crown starters have finished better than third, with Catching Freedom (2024 Preakness) and Angel of Empire (2023 Derby) achieving this result. The last time Cox had a horse in the exacta in a Triple Crown race was in 2021 when Essential Quality won the Belmont.
The four Belmont runners trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. have all finished either first (Mo Donegal in 2022) or second (Mindframe in 2024, Forte in 2023, Dr. Post in 2020). Irad Ortiz Jr. is scheduled to ride Renegade on Saturday.
