SouthernWorldwide.com – With the 2026 NFL regular season schedule now officially released, sportsbooks have quickly set the over/under win totals for all 32 teams. While major offseason moves like free-agent signings and draft picks significantly influence betting markets, the strength of schedule is once again poised to be a critical factor in shaping the betting landscape this fall.
According to FOX Sports’ analysis of projected schedule difficulty, the Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, and Green Bay Packers are slated to face the most challenging slates in the league. Conversely, the Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, and New Orleans Saints are expected to have the easiest paths. The Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, and Seattle Seahawks, who all tied for the league lead with 14 wins last year, are not expected by oddsmakers to replicate that success.
The question on many bettors’ minds is which teams are projected to achieve the highest number of wins this year, and which might fall short of their preseason expectations. Let’s delve into the win totals at DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 18.
Arizona Cardinals
Over 4.5: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)Under 4.5: -150 (bet $10 to win $16.67 total)
What to know: The Cardinals managed only three victories in 2025 and concluded the season with a nine-game losing streak. While the addition of RB Jeremiyah Love offers an explosive offensive threat, the defense remains a significant area of concern. Coupled with the NFL’s fourth-toughest schedule, their low win total is understandable.
Atlanta Falcons
Over 6.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)Under 6.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
What to know: Atlanta secured eight wins in 2025 and finished the season strong with four consecutive victories. Despite this positive momentum, the Falcons enter 2026 with a relatively modest win total under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, and Tua Tagovailoa is currently favored to be the starting quarterback.
Baltimore Ravens
Over 11.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)Under 11.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)
What to know: The Ravens’ eight wins in 2025 were significantly impacted by Lamar Jackson missing four games and playing through injuries for much of the season. Following the departure of John Harbaugh after 18 seasons, Baltimore has appointed Jesse Minter as its new head coach and made a significant free-agent acquisition by signing Trey Hendrickson.
Buffalo Bills
Over 10.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)Under 10.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
What to know: The Bills have surpassed their win total of 10.5 in each of the last six seasons. After parting ways with Sean McDermott this offseason, Buffalo promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach and also acquired DJ Moore via trade and signed Bradley Chubb.
Carolina Panthers
Over 7.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)Under 7.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
What to know: The Panthers clinched the NFC South title last season with only eight wins. Coming off their first playoff appearance since 2017, Carolina has made substantial upgrades to its defense with the additions of Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd.
Chicago Bears
Over 9.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)Under 9.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
What to know: The Bears achieved 11 wins and secured the NFC North title in Ben Johnson’s inaugural season in Chicago. However, they are set to face the NFL’s most challenging schedule in 2026. This difficult slate, combined with key defensive departures and the unexpected retirement of center Drew Dalman, has led to a reduced win total for the upcoming season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Over 9.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)Under 9.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
What to know: The Bengals only managed six wins in 2025, largely due to Joe Burrow missing nine games and the team fielding one of the league’s least effective defenses. Nevertheless, Cincinnati has made significant additions this offseason, including Dexter Lawrence II and Boye Mafe, among other moves. The combination of these roster improvements and the third-easiest schedule in the league suggests the Bengals are poised for a substantial rebound in 2026.
Cleveland Browns
Over 6.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)Under 6.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
What to know: The Browns secured five wins in 2025 and finished at the bottom of the AFC North. However, Cleveland has undergone significant changes this offseason, including the hiring of Todd Monken and improvements to an offensive line that struggled considerably last year. The Browns are also anticipated to feature one of the league’s most compelling quarterback competitions, with Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, and rookie Taylen Green vying for the starting role.
Dallas Cowboys
Over 9.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)Under 9.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
What to know: The Cowboys won seven games last season, largely due to fielding one of the NFL’s worst defenses. However, their offense remained potent, ranking fifth in the league with 27.7 points per game. Dallas addressed its most significant weakness this offseason by acquiring Rashan Gary via trade and drafting Caleb Downs, two additions that could dramatically bolster the defense. Combined with a more manageable schedule, these moves are a primary driver behind the Cowboys’ projected higher win total for 2026.
Denver Broncos
Over 9.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)Under 9.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
What to know: The Broncos were one of three teams to lead the NFL with 14 wins last season. Notably, they also recorded 11 victories in one-possession games during the regular season, tying an NFL record. The central question heading into 2026 is whether Denver can maintain that same level of success in close contests. Their win total suggests a step back, despite the acquisition of Jaylen Waddle through trade.
Detroit Lions
Over 10.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)Under 10.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
What to know: After an impressive 15-win season in 2024, the Lions experienced a significant downturn in 2025, finishing with a 9-8 record and missing the playoffs. However, due to finishing last in the NFC North, Detroit will face the sixth-easiest schedule in 2026, which is a major contributor to the team’s elevated win total projection.
Green Bay Packers
Over 10.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)Under 10.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)
What to know: Despite recent successes, the Packers have only managed to exceed this win total twice in the past five seasons, including last year when they finished with nine wins and lost their final five games. Even with the third-hardest schedule in 2026, Green Bay faces high expectations from oddsmakers.
Houston Texans
Over 9.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)Under 9.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
What to know: Houston has achieved at least 10 wins in each of the last three seasons, including 12 victories in 2025. After an initial 0-3 start last season, the Texans went on to win 12 of their final 14 games, featuring a nine-game winning streak to conclude the regular season before falling in the divisional round.
Indianapolis Colts
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Over 7.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)Under 7.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
What to know: The Colts’ 2025 season was the inverse of the Texans’. Indianapolis started with a 7-1 record and held the No. 1 seed in the AFC after Week 8. However, they subsequently lost eight of their final nine games, including a seven-game losing streak to end the season. This collapse included a four-game stretch where starting quarterback Daniel Jones was sidelined due to injury. Jones is expected to remain the starter in 2026 after signing a two-year, $88 million contract extension.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 8.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)Under 8.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
What to know: After securing only four wins in 2024, the Jaguars executed a remarkable turnaround in 2025, achieving 13 wins and capturing the AFC South title in Liam Coen’s first season as head coach. However, Jacksonville experienced some notable free-agent departures, including Travis Etienne Jr. and Devin Lloyd, which may contribute to the team’s lower projected win total entering 2026.
Kansas City Chiefs
Over 10.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)Under 10.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)
What to know: The Chiefs recorded their lowest win total since 2012 with just six victories, a result heavily influenced by a dismal 1-9 record in one-score games. While Kansas City remained in playoff contention for the majority of the season, Patrick Mahomes’ ACL injury, which caused him to miss the final three games, effectively ended the team’s playoff aspirations. With Mahomes expected to return by Week 1, Las Vegas anticipates the Chiefs will rebound to championship contention in 2026.
Las Vegas Raiders
Over 5.5: -145 (bet $10 to win $16.90 total)Under 5.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
What to know: After finishing with the worst record in the NFL last year with only three wins, the Raiders now possess renewed hope following the drafting of Fernando Mendoza. After committing $281.5 million on the first day of free agency alone, Las Vegas is expected to be significantly improved in 2026, even if Kirk Cousins is the starting quarterback to begin the season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Over 9.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)Under 9.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
What to know: The Chargers achieved 11 wins in 2025 despite losing both All-Pro tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, for a significant portion of the season. Both are expected to return in 2026, and Los Angeles has also added Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator. Despite these significant boosts, the Chargers’ win total is paradoxically lower entering the season.
Los Angeles Rams
Over 10.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)Under 10.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
What to know: The Rams secured 12 wins last season, and with a few different breaks and fewer costly mistakes in their losses to Seattle, they could have been hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The Rams’ primary weakness, the secondary, was addressed this offseason with the acquisition of Trent McDuffie via trade, suggesting they should be improved in 2026. They are currently considered the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +800.
Miami Dolphins
Over 4.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)Under 4.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
What to know: The Dolphins share the lowest projected win total entering 2026, tied with the Cardinals. Miami is set to look considerably different this season following the departures of Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa, as they were significant sellers this offseason, trading away both Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick while also releasing Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb. Jeff Hafley and Malik Willis are now tasked with leading a new era in Miami.
Minnesota Vikings
Over 8.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)Under 8.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
What to know: The Vikings achieved nine wins last season after letting Sam Darnold depart in free agency, with a notable positive being their strong finish, winning their final five games. Minnesota also signed Kyler Murray to a veteran minimum contract to compete with J.J. McCarthy for the starting quarterback position in 2026.
New England Patriots
Over 9.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)Under 9.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
What to know: The Patriots are coming off a 14-win season that culminated in a Super Bowl appearance, but they also benefited from one of the easiest schedules in the NFL in 2025. New England now faces the sixth-toughest schedule entering 2026, which is a primary reason why oddsmakers are projecting a decline in wins.
New Orleans Saints
Over 7.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)Under 7.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
What to know: The Saints only secured six wins last season, but they posted a 5-4 record in games started by Tyler Shough and a 1-7 record in all other contests. With Shough expected to be the full-time starter entering 2026, New Orleans’ win total has seen an increase, particularly with the team facing the second-easiest schedule in the NFL.
New York Giants
Over 7.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)Under 7.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
What to know: After accumulating a combined 13 wins over the last three seasons, the Giants are embarking on a new era in New York under John Harbaugh. The team saw improvements this offseason with an impressive draft class that included Arvell Reese and Francis Mauigoa, who are set to join a young core featuring Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo, and Malik Nabers. The future appears bright for New York.
New York Jets
Over 5.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)Under 5.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
What to know: The inaugural season of the Aaron Glenn era in New York did not unfold as anticipated, with the Jets managing only three victories. However, following the signing of Geno Smith, the addition of several key defensive free agents, and a solid draft class featuring offensive weapons Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr., oddsmakers are projecting some level of improvement in 2026.
Philadelphia Eagles
Over 10.5: +115 (bet $1
