SouthernWorldwide.com – Latino voters significantly contributed to a record turnout in the recent Texas primaries, with a majority participating in the Democratic contests. This trend is being closely monitored by Democrats as they aim to regain support from this demographic and potentially secure an upset victory in the Republican-leaning state’s Senate race.
More than 4.4 million ballots were cast in the primaries, surpassing the numbers from both the 2024 and 2020 presidential primaries. The surge in turnout was partly fueled by Latino voters, particularly in South Texas, an area with a Latino majority that had previously shown support for President Trump in 2024.
Counties with a majority Latino population saw an approximate 37% increase in primary votes compared to their average turnout in 2020, 2022, and 2024. Other Texas counties experienced a roughly 33% aggregate increase. Starr and Hidalgo counties, located along the U.S.-Mexico border and having significant Latino populations, recorded some of the largest increases at 67% and 51%, respectively.
A notable factor was that new primary voters were disproportionately Latino. For instance, about one-third of Latino early voters had not participated in a recent primary. Furthermore, Latino turnout leaned heavily Democratic this year. Data from both precinct results and individual voter files indicate that approximately three out of every four Latino voters chose the Democratic primary over the Republican one, with new primary voters showing this preference even more strongly.
Democrats have faced increasing challenges in securing Latino voters. According to a Pew Research Center survey of confirmed voters, Mr. Trump garnered 48% of the nationwide Latino vote in 2024, a 12-point increase from four years prior. In Texas, where Latino voters are considered vital for Democratic success, some predominantly Latino counties along the Rio Grande shifted from being Democratic strongholds to leaning Republican.
However, Democrats are hopeful that Latino voters will return to their fold this year.
“There is no question this is a red flag for Republicans, a five alarm fire,” stated Mike Madrid, a political analyst and seasoned California GOP strategist who has been critical of Mr. Trump. “Now can they mitigate it? Yes. Are they doing things to limit the damage? No.”
Madrid suggests that the implementation of tariffs initiated the “downslide” for Republicans among Latino voters. He believes this decline was further exacerbated by immigration raids conducted nationwide, including in towns along the U.S.-Mexico border. Recent polling indicates that most Americans, including a majority of Latino respondents, disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of immigration and feel he is excessively focused on imposing tariffs on foreign goods.
“They’re going to have to distance themselves from key Trump policies, without distancing themselves from Trump,” Madrid commented. “That is very difficult to do.”
On Tuesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that the Republican party is undergoing a “course correction mode” in addressing the Latino vote for the 2026 midterms.
“We got a little hiccup with some of the Hispanic and Latino voters for certain because some of the immigration enforcement was viewed to be overzealous and everybody can describe it differently,” said Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana. “But here’s the good news, we are in a course correction mode right now.”
White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair advised House Republicans in a closed-door briefing on Tuesday to avoid emphasizing “mass deportations” when discussing the administration’s agenda leading up to the midterms, according to two sources present. Instead, Blair suggested lawmakers should concentrate on the administration’s efforts to target and remove violent criminals who are in the U.S. illegally, the sources added.
Blair noted that immigration remains a beneficial issue for Republicans, having contributed to Mr. Trump’s return to the White House. However, he encouraged lawmakers to prioritize public safety.
Axios was the first to report on Blair’s remarks.
When asked about Blair’s comments, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt informed CBS News: “Nobody is changing the Administration’s immigration enforcement agenda. President Trump’s highest priority has always been the deportation of illegal alien criminals who endanger American communities.”
A White House official affirmed that the administration’s immigration policy remains unchanged, and Blair was merely “emphasizing the message that we know resonates the most with respect to the policy.”
Talarico focuses on Latino voters
A significant turnout among Latino voters helped bolster the Democratic Senate campaign of state Rep. James Talarico. He won last week’s primary and aims to be the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since 1988. Talarico achieved better results than his Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, in areas of the state with large Latino populations.
Talarico’s campaign actively courted Latino voters through early outreach efforts, including some conducted in Spanish. For this initiative, Talarico enlisted the support of Carlos Eduardo Espina, a Hispanic TikTok influencer with over 20 million followers across various social media platforms. Espina, who stated he worked as a volunteer, posted pro-Talarico videos, campaigned for him, and assisted the 36-year-old seminary student-turned-politician with Spanish-language social media content.
“We’re getting to a point where beyond Talarico, in general, if you want to win in Texas, it’s very hard to do so, especially at the state level, without having Spanish communication,” Espina told CBS News.
Espina intends to continue promoting Talarico’s campaign message and those of other Democratic congressional candidates, aiming to flip Republican-held seats in Texas in November through his social media content that reaches millions of Hispanics.
“I don’t consider myself to be a hardline Democrat,” Espina shared with CBS News. “I just think at this moment, with everything going on, the best thing I can do for my community is advocate for a positive change and I try to align myself with not just any Democrat, but Democrats that I feel speak to me and my community.”
Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico speaks at a March 2 campaign rally in Houston after being introduced by social media personality and influencer Carlos Eduardo Espina.
Danielle Villasana / Getty Images
While it is widely anticipated that Latino Texans, who constitute approximately 40% of the state’s population, will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the Senate race and other state contests, the extent to which this benefits Democrats may depend on the eventual Republican Senate nominee.
In the Republican primary, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn performed better than expected in areas with a majority Latino population, outperforming his opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
“What we do know is there’s going to be a very high turnout,” Madrid remarked regarding the November general election. “It will be more Democratic, but the question is how much more Democratic?”
The role of redistricting
Last year, at the behest of Mr. Trump, Texas Republicans redrew the state’s congressional districts. This redistricting process made five Democratic seats more favorable for Republicans in anticipation of the 2026 midterms.
These new boundaries were established based on voting data, taking into account the gains Republicans made with Latino voters in 2024. Consequently, GOP congressional candidates will need to replicate these gains in this year’s midterms to maintain their current seats and potentially win new ones.
One closely watched House race is set to occur in a district with a majority Hispanic population, stretching from the Rio Grande Valley to areas east of San Antonio.
Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz is seeking reelection in the 15th Congressional District against Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star. This district has shown a strong Republican preference in recent years, but Democrats are hoping to flip it as Latino voters trend towards the left.
“I hear what their concerns are,” De La Cruz told CBS News before last week’s Texas primary when asked about her Latino constituents. “I also understand that they don’t want to return to the chaos and the lack of law and order that was happening under the Biden administration,” De La Cruz stated. “They asked for a secure border, President Trump has delivered on that secure border, and the next step is to look at enforcement policies that are going to work for all.”
The Texas Republican congresswoman has advocated for bipartisan solutions on immigration in Congress, such as temporary work visas for construction workers, an industry affected by immigration arrests within her congressional district.
While the high turnout of Latino voters for Democratic candidates last week could signal challenges for Republicans, some experts caution against drawing definitive conclusions from primary results.
“When you look at some of the historical data in Texas from 2002, 2004, 2008 and 2020, the data has shown more Hispanics vote in the Democratic primary, but in the same years during the general election, Republicans still ended up winning statewide races,” commented Jorge Martinez, an advisor to the LIBRE Action Texas organization.
LIBRE Action is supporting Eric Flores, a Republican congressional candidate endorsed by Trump, who is competing to unseat Democratic incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. Gonzalez represents a border district that became more favorable to Republicans following last year’s redistricting process.
Latino voters in the region are particularly concerned about the economy and immigration enforcement, according to Martinez, who stresses the importance of direct voter outreach.
“Look, if you’re not reaching out to our community, you’re going to lose,” Martinez stated. “We’ve seen over the last few election cycles, Republicans making inroads because of gains they made through outreach. We’ve been out there for many years, informing on issues, but you also see Democrats trying to do the same because they’ve realized that they took Hispanics for granted.”
The data analyses presented in this report utilize voter registration lists, along with county- and precinct-level election results. The precinct results were compiled from a diverse selection of 18 counties, representing approximately half of the precincts statewide.
Olivia Rinaldi
contributed to this report.
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