SouthernWorldwide.com – The failure of critical U.S.-Iran negotiations has amplified concerns that high-ranking officials within Tehran’s leadership might seek refuge in Russia, aiming to “continue their insurgency and undermine any new regime,” according to an analyst.
This breakdown in talks occurs as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also stated in an interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes” that the toppling of Iran’s regime could now be a realistic possibility.
Netanyahu highlighted that any such collapse would dismantle the entire structure of Tehran’s global network of proxy terror groups, potentially diminishing Hezbollah’s influence in the region.
“The entire scaffolding of the terrorist proxy network that Iran built collapses if the regime in Iran collapses,” Netanyahu remarked.
He cautioned that while a regime collapse is possible, its timing cannot be predicted and is not guaranteed.
With diplomatic avenues seemingly exhausted and the stability of the regime in question, an expert suggests that any potential exit strategy for the leadership might mirror that of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who reportedly sought refuge in Russia in 2024.
“If the situation deteriorates further, some senior figures could potentially follow a path like Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle and seek refuge in Russia,” stated Saeid Golkar, a Middle East expert, in an interview with Fox News Digital.
Golkar, who serves as a senior adviser at United Against Nuclear Iran, indicated that the choice of destination for fleeing officials would likely depend on their position within the regime.
While top figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf might opt for Moscow, those with lower ranks would more likely seek shelter in Iraq or Afghanistan, regions where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains operational ties, he explained.
“For the most senior figures, Russia would probably be the most likely destination, again as we saw with Bashar al-Assad,” Golkar commented, noting that many officials have already moved their assets into “financial networks outside Iran.”
The current crisis appears to have been triggered by the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier in 2026, during the initial phase of Operation Epic Fury.
Although his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was designated as his successor, reports suggest he sustained severe injuries in the strikes and has not been seen in recent negotiations.
Golkar elaborated that the “invisible state,” known as Bayt-e Rahbari, was designed to withstand a decapitation strike, meaning it could survive even if its top leadership was eliminated.
“Inside the regime’s ideological culture, leaving the country during the collapse would look like desertion,” Golkar observed.
However, as internal military divisions widen and the succession plan remains uncertain, the “Assad model” of seeking protection from Russia seems increasingly appealing to those at the highest echelons of power.
Regarding Mojtaba Khamenei, Golkar stated he is “either dead or in bad condition, that he cannot send any video or voice message.”
“If he had died from his injuries, there was no clear natural successor. He was the continuation of the regime.”
“Still, the system was designed for continuity during a crisis,” Golkar added, explaining that the system’s objective is to “make sure the regime could survive even if formal institutions were damaged, leaders were killed, or civilian government stopped functioning.”
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“I would describe it as a regime designed not just to govern, but always to try and survive decapitation,” Golkar concluded.
