SouthernWorldwide.com – Following a significant Supreme Court ruling that weakened a section of the Voting Rights Act concerning majority-minority districts, Republican officials in several Southern states have initiated early efforts to redraw their congressional maps.
The Supreme Court’s decision on Wednesday struck down a Louisiana congressional map that featured two Democratic-leaning, majority-Black districts. The following day, Louisiana officials announced the suspension of their May 16 House primaries, urging lawmakers to redraw the congressional map. Subsequently, on Friday, the governors of Alabama and Tennessee convened special legislative sessions to address redistricting.
In an optimistic scenario for Republicans, a CBS News analysis suggests that redrawing maps in several Southern states could lead to an increase of one to nine additional GOP-friendly districts for the 2026 midterm elections, provided these maps withstand legal challenges. This number is projected to rise further for the 2028 cycle as more states adjust their boundaries in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling.
However, a significant hurdle for any further Republican-driven redistricting in 2026 is the constraint of time. Many states have already held their primary elections, have them scheduled imminently, or have passed the candidate filing deadlines for ballot access.
Potential legal challenges are anticipated, and any last-minute map alterations could face complications due to the “Purcell principle.” This principle dictates that federal courts cannot alter voting or election rules too close to an election date.
An additional challenge for 2026 is the unfavorable political climate for the Republican party, influenced by voter dissatisfaction with the economy and the ongoing U.S. involvement in the war in Iran.
“If you draw a Trump +7 district or even a Trump +10 district, that may not be enough. So why not wait till an election cycle in 2028 that might be better for your party?” stated Michael Li, senior counsel at the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program.
While GOP activists have called for map adjustments in numerous Republican-controlled states, including Georgia and South Carolina, here is a detailed look at which states are most likely to attempt redistricting before this November’s midterm elections:
Louisiana (potential +1 to 2 R seats)
Early voting for the May 16 primary was slated to commence on May 2, with ballots already printed. Secretary of State Nancy Landry confirmed on Thursday that other primaries, including the state’s Senate race, would proceed as scheduled, and all voting locations would be notified of the suspension of the House primary.
“Pursuant to 18:401.1(B), I have certified the emergency in light of the Supreme Court ruling. This is a mandatory step prior to the Governor issuing an executive order suspending the upcoming Louisiana U.S. House races,” Secretary Landry stated on social media.
In an executive order signed Thursday, Republican Governor Jeff Landry encouraged the state Legislature to approve new congressional maps and schedule elections “as soon as practical.” Former President Trump expressed his gratitude to Landry on Thursday for his swift action in redrawing the lines following the Supreme Court’s decision.
Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill informed CBS News on Wednesday that the state might revert to its previous map, which featured only one Black-majority district. She acknowledged this would be a significant undertaking, especially concerning the potential rescheduling of the state’s May primary.
That prior map favored Republicans in five districts and Democrats in only one. Depending on the assertiveness of state GOP legislators, a new map could potentially add one to two Republican-leaning seats by dividing the existing Black-majority districts. The U.S. Census indicates that the state’s population is nearly one-third Black.
“We can realistically end up having six congressional districts with no African-American, or Democratic representation, it’s very possible, given what we’ve seen happen across this country,” Democratic Rep. Troy Carter told CBS News on Wednesday.
“The reality is this is much deeper and much further than Louisiana. This can impact up to 19 or 20 seats in the congressional Black Caucus. It can impact school boards. It can impact city councils, legislative seats. This is, in fact, an explosive move to turn the clock back all the way pre-1965,” he added.
Florida (potential +4 R)
A proposed map from Republican Governor Ron DeSantis passed the state Legislature on Wednesday and awaits his signature. This map aims to create four additional Republican-leaning seats by eliminating or reducing the size of Democratic-leaning districts in Tampa, Orlando, and parts of the state’s southeastern coast.
DeSantis’ legal counsel had anticipated this Supreme Court ruling, arguing that it absolves them of the obligation to adhere to racial considerations stipulated in their state constitution’s “Fair Districts” Amendments.
“Much like Louisiana’s ‘intentional compliance with the court’s demands constituted an express acknowledgement that race played a role in the drawing of district lines,’ Florida’s intentional compliance with the [Fair Districts Amendments] would constitute such an acknowledgement,” wrote DeSantis’ general counsel David Axelman in a letter to state lawmakers during map deliberations.
Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias has pledged to challenge the map in court.
Tennessee (potential +1 R)
Gubernatorial candidate and current U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn has repeatedly urged the Tennessee Legislature to reconvene to redraw the lines for the 2026 election. Blackburn has proposed a map that could result in a nine-Republican to zero-Democrat split by dissolving Tennessee’s 9th District, which encompasses Memphis, and diluting the Black voting population.
The state’s congressional primaries are scheduled for August 6, although the qualifying deadline in March has already passed.
On Friday, Republican Governor Bill Lee called for a special legislative session commencing Tuesday to “ensure our congressional districts accurately reflect the will of Tennessee voters.”
State Representative Johnny Garrett, who previously held a leadership position in the Tennessee state House, has endorsed Blackburn’s proposal. Garrett wrote on X, referring to longtime Memphis-area Democratic Representative Steve Cohen, “Tennessee should do its part in supporting @realDonaldTrump’s America First agenda by getting rid of the woke @RepCohen.”
Mr. Trump stated he spoke with Governor Lee on Thursday and was assured that he would “work hard to correct the unconstitutional flaw in the Congressional Maps of the Great State of Tennessee.”
“This should give us one extra seat, and help Save our Country from the Radical Left Democrats,” Mr. Trump wrote. “Thank you Governor Lee – PUSH HARD!”
Mississippi (potential +1 R)
Republican Governor Tate Reeves has announced that a redistricting session would occur 21 days after the Louisiana v. Callais ruling, which would be May 20. GOP operatives in the state note that his call was technically focused on redrawing the State’s Supreme Court districts, as those lines had faced legal challenges for diluting the voting power of Black voters.
However, it is plausible that Mississippi Republicans will also include congressional redistricting in this session, potentially adding one GOP-leaning seat by targeting the state’s 2nd Congressional District, a majority-Black district currently represented by Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson.
“First Dobbs. Now Callais. Just Mississippi and Louisiana down here saving our country!” Reeves posted on X on Wednesday.
Similar to Louisiana, Mississippi faces a timeline issue as its primaries have already concluded in March.
“There’s lots of complications to [schedule another primary]. If you schedule an August primary, like who’s going to turn out for another primary in August? There’s a lot of variability when you move primaries in different times, and it’s expensive,” said Li, senior counsel at the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program.
“Unlikely legally that redraw would stand, but they can try,” added Michael McNulty, policy director at the Issue One organization.
This has not deterred Republican state officials from asserting that the lines should be redrawn. Republican Mississippi State Auditor Shad White wrote, “This likely opens the door to redrawing Mississippi’s congressional districts. Mississippi might no longer have a district drawn to protect Bennie Thompson.” Republican State Senator Kevin Blackwell wrote, “It’s time to erase Bennie Thompson’s District.”
Alabama (potential +1 R)
In 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Alabama in a case similar to Louisiana v. Callais. The Court’s 5-4 decision in Allen v. Milligan stated that a congressional map supported by the state GOP violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, mandating the state to redraw a map that included a second Black-majority congressional seat.
However, after a federal three-judge panel determined that the new map violated the Voting Rights Act and the 14th Amendment, the state appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court once more. The map currently in effect was drawn by a court-appointed expert in late 2023.
On Thursday, Republican Governor Kay Ivey cited the pending litigation as a reason not to immediately call for a special session to redraw the maps. “While we are not in position to have a special session at this time, I hope in light of this new decision, the court is favorable to Alabama,” Ivey stated.
However, the following day, Ivey called for a legislative session starting Monday to allow state lawmakers to schedule special elections in the event that Alabama’s House districts are redrawn. Ivey indicated her desire for the state to be “prepared” if the courts permit Alabama to revert to its 2023 map in time for the current election cycle.
Alabama’s primaries are scheduled for May 19, and the filing deadline was in January.
The state currently has two districts with predominantly Black electorates, both represented by Democrats: the 2nd and 7th Districts. Previously, the state had only one Democratic House member.
Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall requested the Supreme Court expedite its review of the issue on Thursday. He stated that the state “will act as quickly as possible” to apply the Louisiana ruling to Alabama’s redistricting efforts, to “ensure that our congressional maps reflect the will of the people, not a racial quota system the Constitution forbids.”
