SouthernWorldwide.com – My mornings typically begin with a cup of coffee, a habit I now find indispensable, and the “News Items” newsletter curated by John Ellis. Ellis, a respected figure from NBC News known for his fairness and seriousness, transformed his personal hobby of compiling significant news stories into an influential summary for friends and family.
This newsletter became a consistent part of my morning routine for many years. When Ellis decided to expand the project, I was among many recipients who offered financial support, believing the country needed a news source that remained unbiased. Over time, “News Items” has evolved into a valuable alternative to sifting through traditional media outlets for a comprehensive morning update on global news.
The “News Items” newsletter prides itself on its lack of a political slant. Therefore, when it highlighted a particularly impactful story with a “Well that really matters!” introduction, I paused to consider its broader implications. Wednesday’s edition began with such a statement.
MORNING GLORY: PRESIDENT TRUMP MUST REJECT A SECOND MUNICH AND HOLD FIRM AGAIN IRAN
“1. The Trump administration’s public depiction of a weakened Iranian military starkly contrasts with information provided to policymakers by U.S. intelligence agencies in classified assessments from early this month. These assessments indicate that Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers, and underground facilities. Of particular concern to some senior officials is evidence suggesting Iran has restored operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites located along the Strait of Hormuz, posing a potential threat to American warships and oil tankers traversing this narrow waterway. Sources familiar with the assessments report that, to varying degrees depending on the damage sustained at individual sites, the Iranians can utilize mobile launchers within these facilities to reposition missiles. In some instances, they can launch missiles directly from the existing launchpads. According to the assessments, only three missile sites along the strait remain entirely inaccessible.”
Having long since stopped relying on The New York Times for factual news—the infamous “rape-trained dogs” column by Nicholas Kristof likely caused many readers seeking actual news, rather than recipes or puzzles, to unsubscribe—I would not have been aware of this significant report early yesterday without “News Items.”
Baca juga di sini: New 9/11 Museum Exhibit Connects Younger Americans to Attacks Through Artifacts
The newsletter can be trusted to provide an accurate summary of a story from a platform that is not widely trusted by the center-right, yet it is a story of considerable importance.
The CIA, presumably the lead agency for this leaked assessment, is currently headed by the highly competent John Ratcliffe. However, the CIA has a mixed record concerning Iran. This includes their failure to anticipate the 1979 Islamic Revolution and its implications, as well as the 2007 “assessment” of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which proved to be significantly inaccurate.
The 2007 intelligence failure should serve as a cautionary tale for those consuming this new report:
“We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.”
These were the opening words of the key judgments in the November 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) concerning “Iran’s Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities.” While the CIA may have had collaborators within the broader Intelligence Community for this colossal misjudgment, the damage it inflicted by hindering President George W. Bush’s actions regarding Iran in his final months was substantial.
President Obama, over his eight years in office, attempted to integrate Iran into the international community. This included the controversial shipment of cash to the IRGC as part of the JCPOA. Perhaps he did not fully grasp, due to the 2007 NIE, that the Islamic Republic was, and would remain, a dangerous rogue theocracy. It has been led by successive fanatical dictators since 1979, whose ultimate objective has been to develop and deploy nuclear weapons to first destroy Israel and then any other nation opposing their apocalyptic vision, including the United States, should they possess the missile capability to reach American soil.
No updated or revised NIE was ever publicly disclosed, even after Israel obtained Iran’s entire nuclear archive. However, it is clear that the Obama administration was ideologically predisposed to engage in a losing gambit with Iran’s long-standing global maneuvering.
This lengthy explanation leads to two crucial points: first, the new assessment could be as erroneous as the 2007 one; and second, hope is not a viable strategy, especially in the context of confronting Iran. This time, as in 2007, the president should rely on the Intelligence Community’s assessment.
This suggests that the planning for extensive strikes on Iran’s military capabilities should already be well underway.
Iran’s immediate reaction to the February 28 attacks was not limited to retaliating against Israel and U.S. bases; it extended to a dozen other countries, targeting their militaries and infrastructure. Like a cornered animal, the regime reacted erratically. It is important to note that Iran was not deterred or fundamentally changed by the significant blows it sustained. Instead, the remaining hardliners regrouped and intensified their calls for vengeance.
The situation is relatively calm now while President Trump is in China. However, the “News Items” summary, which itself summarized a New York Times report on the intelligence leak, indicates that strikes are likely to resume upon President Trump’s return.
There is no benefit to negotiating with the current leadership in Tehran. The only effective path forward involves the sustained degradation of their military capabilities and the strangulation of their economy. It is possible that the Artesh may grow weary of not receiving their salaries, or a colonel within the IRGC might orchestrate a coup with the support of other disgruntled officers. These are potential avenues, but it is difficult to envision internal resistance to the regime’s hardline leadership coalescing without a combination of military pressure and economic hardship.
None of the potential solutions should involve allowing Iran to maintain its current trajectory. Rogue states should not possess weapons of mass destruction. Similarly, rogue actors on the global stage should not have access to missiles, mines, drones, or enriched uranium. The matter is fundamentally straightforward. Whether acting alone or in concert with Israel and its Gulf allies, President Trump must see this endeavor through to completion.
