SouthernWorldwide.com – The 2026 Preakness Stakes is set to take place at Laurel Park this year, marking a significant shift from its traditional venue. This change introduces twelve new contenders to the Triple Crown trail, with only Ocelli and Incredibolt having previously competed in the Kentucky Derby.
The race is characterized as wide open, with Iron Honor listed as the 9-2 favorite on the Morning Line. Alongside Iron Honor, three other horses – Incredibolt, Chip Honcho, and Taj Mahal – are at 5-1 odds. This suggests that any of these top contenders could offer a substantial payout if they emerge victorious.
However, the overall talent level in this year’s Preakness is considered to be somewhat subpar, which could lead to a surprising outcome and a brightly lit tote board, reminiscent of the Kentucky Derby.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica, a seasoned expert, is sharing his insights and betting strategies for the Preakness Stakes. His aim is to recover from a disappointing performance in the Derby by identifying strong contenders and potential value bets.
Notes, Stats, and Trends
Taj Mahal, starting from post position 1, is drawing considerable attention. He boasts a perfect 3-for-3 record, with all his wins occurring at Laurel Park, the last two achieved through front-running tactics. Trainer Brittany Russell has the opportunity to secure consecutive Triple Crown races won by female trainers.
While Taj Mahal’s previous races have been impressive, the competition in the Preakness presents a different challenge. The rail post position, combined with expected early pace pressure from horses like Crupper (3), Robusta (4), Chip Honcho (6), Napoleon Solo (10), Corona de Oro (11), and Pretty Boy Miah (14), could complicate his front-running strategy.
Despite being a likely tepid favorite, Fallica intends to oppose Taj Mahal in the win pool, anticipating that the early pace will be too taxing.
Iron Honor, from post 9, is a horse that piques Fallica’s interest significantly. Trainer Chad Brown’s Preakness starters, when bet to 6-1 or better, have consistently performed well, never finishing worse than fourth. Iron Honor, the Gotham winner, faced adversity in the Wood Memorial due to a difficult outside post.
The decision to remove blinkers from Iron Honor is a strategic move that Fallica believes will help him conserve energy during the anticipated fast pace. He plans to key Iron Honor in all trifecta and superfecta wagers. Historically, the last six Preakness favorites have all finished in the money, including one win, three second-place finishes, and two thirds.
Read more : Becerra Faces Rivals' Scrutiny Over Campaign Scandal
Fallica is dismissing Ocelli (2), whose third-place finish in the Derby is attributed to a favorable pace scenario. The shorter stretch at Laurel Park is unlikely to benefit deep closers like Ocelli, making him a potential underlay at projected odds of 5-1 or 6-1, especially considering his prior long odds in graded stakes races.
Steve Asmussen, a two-time Preakness winner, is represented by Chip Honcho (6). However, Asmussen’s recent record in the Preakness is less stellar, with only two of his last thirteen starters finishing second. Clever Again’s performance last year, where he set a fast pace and finished last, serves as a cautionary example.
Chip Honcho may require an ideal race setup to contend for the win, and Fallica is uncertain if that will materialize. While Chip Honcho did finish five lengths ahead of Derby winner Golden Tempo in the Risen Star, Fallica views him as a horse best suited for an underneath position in exotics.
Napoleon Solo (10), trainer Chad Summers’ first Triple Crown starter, is another horse expected to contest the early lead. His performance in his three-year-old races has not matched his two-year-old efforts at shorter distances, leading to skepticism from Fallica.
Incredibolt (12) showed decent form in the Kentucky Derby, and Fallica believes he has a chance in the Preakness if he can maintain a good position without getting too far back in the quick pace. He will be included in wagers.
Two long shots have captured Fallica’s attention: Talkin (5) and Corona de Oro (11).
Talkin (5) has been specifically targeted for this race by trainer Danny Gargan since the Blue Grass Stakes. Despite finishing over 12 lengths behind the winner in the Blue Grass, it’s important to note that Further Ado had an exceptional performance that day. Talkin recorded a career-best Beyer Speed Figure in that race and is expected to improve in his third start of the year.
His prior races at Tampa Bay and in the Remsen Stakes are seen as needing races, where he faced strong competition. Fallica notes that Talkin was the same price as Napoleon Solo in the Champagne Stakes, where Solo had a favorable trip. With Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard and a projected favorable trip from a good post, Fallica believes Talkin, despite not being expected at 20-1, will still offer attractive odds.
Gargan’s previous success with the 18-1 shot Dornoch in the 2024 Belmont Stakes adds to the belief that Talkin is a live long shot for Saturday.
Corona de Oro (11), a 30-1 long shot, is also being considered. He has placed in all three of his starts as a three-year-old and has shown improvement since his two-year-old campaign. The key question is whether he can adapt his running style and avoid getting caught up in the early speed duel.
His early season race at the Fair Grounds saw him come from off the pace, followed by a dominant maiden win and a third-place finish in the Lexington Stakes where he set the pace. Fallica anticipates improvement in his second start against winners.
He hopes jockey John Velazquez will allow Corona de Oro to settle behind Napoleon Solo and then follow Iron Honor throughout the race. Trainer Dallas Stewart has a history of having long-shot horses finish second in Triple Crown races, and Fallica sees potential for Corona de Oro in this “meh” field, provided his predicted race strategy unfolds correctly.
Fallica concludes with well wishes for good luck and expresses anticipation for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga on June 6th.
How I’m Betting The Preakness Stakes
$4 Exacta Box ($48)1-5-9-11
$2 Exacta Key Box ($28)5-11/1-5-9-11-12
$10 Win-Place ($40)5-11
$1 Trifecta ($48)9-12/5-11/all
$1 Trifecta ($72)5-11/1-9-12/all
