SouthernWorldwide.com – A recent Fox News poll offers an early glimpse into the dynamics of the Georgia Senate race, highlighting key demographics and voter concerns that could shape the outcome.
The poll indicates that incumbent Democrat Senator Jon Ossoff holds an advantage over Republican challenger Jeff Collins. This comes after Collins secured a last-minute endorsement from President Trump in the June GOP primary runoff, where he defeated Derek Dooley, who had the backing of Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. Trump’s influence in Georgia is notable, having carried the state by approximately 2 points in 2024, a reversal from his narrow loss by less than a point in 2020. He previously won the state by over 5 points in 2016.
Senator Ossoff benefits from robust support among several key voter groups. He garners strong backing from Black voters, with 87% expressing support. Younger voters under 30 also lean heavily towards Ossoff, with 68% supporting him. Independents (68%) and moderates (66%) also show significant favorability. Furthermore, women under 45 are largely in Ossoff’s corner, with 66% supporting him.
Among the 82% of Georgia voters who identify as motivated to vote, Ossoff leads Collins by 11 percentage points, securing 55% of the vote compared to Collins’ 44%.
Collins finds his strongest support among specific segments of the electorate. White evangelical Christians overwhelmingly back him, with 79% support. White men without a college degree also show strong support at 65%. Rural voters are another key demographic for Collins, with 55% favoring him. Additionally, about half of gun-owner households (53%) and veterans (50%) express support for Collins.
Ossoff’s campaign appears to benefit from higher party loyalty. Nearly all Democrats, 96%, back him, and over 80% of his supporters indicate their vote is primarily for him, rather than a vote against Collins.
On the Republican side, Collins enjoys strong support from his party base, with 9 out of 10 Republicans backing him (89%). However, the poll suggests that only 56% of his supporters say their vote is for him, while a significant 44% state it is primarily an opposition vote against Ossoff.
An interesting finding is the sentiment among non-MAGA Republicans. Nearly a quarter of this group indicates they will back the Democratic candidate, Ossoff, which contrasts sharply with only 4% of MAGA supporters who express similar intentions.
Levels of enthusiasm for both candidates are quite similar. Approximately 8 out of 10 Ossoff supporters are certain they will vote for him (81%) and are extremely or very motivated to cast their ballot (81%). For Collins’ supporters, 78% are certain to back him, and 84% report being motivated to vote.
In terms of overall favorability, Ossoff is viewed positively by nearly 6 in 10 voters (58%). This figure is considerably higher than the 4 in 10 voters who hold a favorable opinion of Collins (44%). Former President Trump also shows a lower favorable rating at 42%. Trump’s favorable rating has seen a decline of 5 points from 47% in a previous Georgia poll conducted in 2024.
A notable concern for Georgia voters is the perception of Collins’ closeness to former President Trump. Georgians are 6 percentage points more likely to express extreme or very high concern about Collins being too close to Trump (53%) than they are about Ossoff being too liberal (47%).
Inflation emerges as the dominant issue influencing voters’ decisions in the Senate race. A significant 40% of voters identify inflation as the most important issue for their Senate vote. Healthcare follows as a distant second concern at 13%. Political divisions and immigration each garner 11% of voter concern, followed closely by jobs and unemployment, also at 11%. Other issues like the Iran conflict (5%), crime (5%), and abortion (3%) rank lower in voter priorities.
Ossoff holds substantial advantages among voters who prioritize certain issues. He leads by 21 points among those most concerned about inflation. His lead is even larger among those focused on healthcare, at 40 points, and political divisions, at 18 points. Conversely, Collins has a significant lead among voters focused on immigration, with a 45-point advantage.
Daron Shaw, a Republican who co-conducts the survey with Democrat Chris Anderson, commented on the race. “As Brooklyn Dodgers’ announcer Red Barber used to say, Ossoff is ‘sitting in the Catbird seat’,” Shaw stated. “My hunch is the race will become much more competitive, but Collins has work to do convincing Republicans and independents that he and the president can make things more affordable for rank-and-file Georgians.”
Despite widespread concerns about inflation, a majority of Georgians, 51%, report that their personal finances are holding steady. However, 35% feel they are falling behind financially, while only 14% believe they are getting ahead financially.
In the concurrent Georgia gubernatorial race, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms holds a 5-point lead over Republican Rick Jackson, with 52% support compared to Jackson’s 47%. This margin is within the poll’s margin of error.
The poll also reveals instances of ticket splitting, where voters do not cast their ballots for the same party in both the Senate and gubernatorial races. Notably, 11% of Ossoff’s supporters are crossing party lines to back Jackson for governor. Conversely, 5% of Collins’ supporters are backing Lance Bottoms for governor.
Supporters of Lance Bottoms appear more certain about their vote than those of Jackson. 80% of Lance Bottoms’ supporters are certain of their vote, compared to 75% for Jackson.
Both gubernatorial candidates enjoy net-positive personal favorability ratings. Lance Bottoms is viewed favorably by 52% of voters and unfavorably by 38%. For Jackson, the figures are 43% favorable and 38% unfavorable. Approximately 1 in 10 voters remain unfamiliar with each candidate.
