SouthernWorldwide.com – A recent Fox News poll indicates that the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst in Iowa is shaping up to be one of the most competitive Senate contests in 2026. Ernst, who made history as the first woman senator from Iowa, secured her victory by 6.5 percentage points in 2020. This followed President Donald Trump’s wins in the state, by 8 points in 2020 and a more substantial 13 points in 2024.
The last time Iowa elected a Democratic senator was Tom Harkin, nearly two decades ago in 2008. Currently, the Democratic candidate, Josh Turek, holds a narrow 4-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson, with 50% support compared to Hinson’s 46%. This advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting a tight race.
Among voters who express extreme motivation to vote, Turek commands a significant 15-point lead. This is largely attributed to higher enthusiasm among Democrats, with 67% reporting they are extremely motivated to vote, compared to 53% of Republicans.
Ashley Hinson’s net favorability rating is more positive than Donald Trump’s, yet it remains negative by 7 percentage points, with 42% favorable and 49% unfavorable. In contrast, Josh Turek enjoys considerably higher popularity, boasting a net positive rating of 18 points (51% favorable, 33% unfavorable). Sixteen percent of voters remain undecided or have no opinion on Turek, while 9% say the same about Hinson.
In a direct head-to-head matchup, Turek garners support from key demographics including women with college degrees (65%), independents (59%), urban voters (59%), and younger voters under 30 (55%).
Hinson’s support base includes White evangelical Christians (67%), men aged 45 and over (55%), veterans (52%), and men without a college degree (52%). Her backing is particularly strong among MAGA Republicans, who are 23 percentage points more likely to support her than non-MAGA Republicans, with 95% of MAGA Republicans favoring Hinson compared to 72% of non-MAGA Republicans.
Overall, Turek receives support from a higher percentage of his party’s voters than Hinson does from hers. Specifically, 96% of Democrats support Turek, while 88% of Republicans back Hinson, an 8-point difference.
Furthermore, Turek’s supporters appear more committed to their choice. A larger proportion of Turek’s backers, 82%, state they are certain to support him in November, compared to 72% of Hinson’s supporters. Notably, nearly three in ten Hinson supporters indicated they might change their minds.
A higher percentage of Hinson’s supporters state their vote is primarily in favor of her rather than against her opponent. Seventy-seven percent of her supporters say they are voting for Hinson, compared to 60% of Turek’s supporters who say they are voting for Turek.
Donald Trump endorsed Hinson in September, and voters are divided on her association with the former president. Fifty percent of respondents express extreme or very high concern that she is too closely aligned with Trump, while 48% report not being very concerned or not concerned at all.
Fewer voters express concern about Turek’s policy positions being too liberal. Thirty-seven percent of voters are concerned about this, while a larger majority, 59%, are not concerned.
The poll also touched upon voters’ financial outlook. In the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA), 31% of Iowans felt they were falling behind financially. This number has now risen to 42%, a significant increase, while only 11% feel they are getting ahead. The majority, 46%, report their financial situation is holding steady.
Inflation is identified as the most critical issue for a substantial portion of Iowans when casting their Senate vote, with 39% citing it as their top concern. Other issues lag significantly behind, with healthcare mentioned by 14%, immigration and border security by 13%, and political divisions by another 13%. Fewer voters identified abortion (6%), jobs/unemployment (6%), Iran (4%), and crime (2%) as their primary concerns.
Turek holds an advantage on issues that are most important to voters. He leads by 15 points on inflation, 53 points on healthcare, and 20 points on political divisions. Hinson, however, possesses a commanding 88-point lead on the issue of immigration.
In a separate race, Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, like Senator Ernst, has decided not to seek a third term. The new survey reveals that the Democratic nominee for governor, Rob Sand, holds a 9-point lead over Republican challenger Zach Lahn.
Sand benefits from some crossover support. Eleven percent of Hinson’s supporters favor Sand for governor, while 7% of Turek’s supporters back Lahn.
Sand’s supporters appear more resolute in their choice, with 81% stating they are certain of their vote, compared to 74% of Lahn’s backers.
Sand enjoys a positive personal rating of +21, with 54% favorable and 33% unfavorable. Lahn’s ratings are slightly negative, with a 3-point deficit, and 20% of voters are unable to rate him (38% favorable, 41% unfavorable, 20% no opinion).
CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTABS AND TOPLINE
